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Designating Areas with Debris Flow Potentials as Secondary Evacuation Zones Anticipating Massive Ash Fallout From a Large Volcanic Eruption

Published in INTERPRAEVENT2024, 2024

The interplay between volcanic ash and extreme weather events creates a complex scenario that necessitates further investigation to understand the potential risks and devise strategies to reduce them. Volcanic ash deposition in river catchments carries the risk of triggering debris flows when mixed with heavy rainfall. To mitigate such risk, we proposed the creation of comprehensive evacuation zones encompassing both direct and cascading effects of volcanic ash hazards. This research incorporates ash dispersal simulations during severe weather to emphasize the need of the creation of such evacuation zones. The study revealed that the number of people at risk increases significantly, particularly in unaddressed areas vulnerable to debris flow, when a rainfall event promptly follows a large eruption. Therefore, it is essen tial to incorporate the entire population at risk by implementing additional evacuation zones in areas prone to debris flow to mitigate the impacts effectively.

Recommended citation: Rahadianto, H., Tatano, H., & Iguchi, M. (2024). Designating Areas with Debris Flow Potentials as Secondary Evacuation Zones Anticipating Massive Ash Fallout From a Large Volcanic Eruption. In: Schneider, J. (eds): INTERPRAEVENT2024 Conference Proceedings. International Research Society INTERPRAEVENT. https://www.interpraevent.at/en/proceeding/proceedings-ip-2024

Multiscale impact assessment of massive ash fallout from a large eruption: What may happen if Sakurajima Taisho eruption occurs in contemporary Japan?

Published in Journal of Disaster Science and Management, 2025

The 1914 eruption of Sakurajima (the Taisho eruption) caused catastrophic consequences by releasing enormous volcanic ash to Japan’s atmosphere, affecting both proximal and distal regions. As volcanic ash is a complex hazard that can cause damage to critical infrastructure and disrupt socio-economic activities, impacts from such an eruption in contemporary Japan will be more severe than in 1914. Despite records of past large eruptions at Sakurajima and evidence of associated threat, there are no comprehensive studies addressing the full extent of volcanic ash hazards, particularly in distal areas. To fill the gaps in current knowledge, this study presents the multiscale impacts assessment of volcanic ash hazards to contemporary Japan, using the Taisho eruption case, encompassing the physical and socio-economic impacts under both the general weather patterns and extreme weather events. This study incorporates an ash dispersal database generated using One Eruption Scenario (OES) approach which contains tens of thousands of individual eruptive episodes under various weather regimes. We then estimate the probability distributions of ashfall accumulation and overlay them on assets maps in contemporary Japan to assess potential disruption in transportation, service interruptions, damage to infrastructure, and human casualties. This study found that under typical weather, massive ashfall from a large eruption in Sakurajima volcano can disrupt and damage multiple critical infrastructure, such as airports, roads, power networks, and buildings at a local through national level, potentially causing significant economic losses and casualties. Under extreme weather when volcanic ash dispersal widens and intensifies, we found greater overall impacts due to the escalation of initial damage and addition of secondary hazards. The compounded effects of extreme weather and volcanic eruptions demands a re-evaluation of structural resilience and emergency preparedness, particularly in vulnerable regions, as part of integrated disaster management strategies.

Recommended citation: Rahadianto, H., Tatano, H. & Iguchi, M. Multiscale impact assessment of massive ash fallout from a large eruption: What may happen if Sakurajima Taisho eruption occurs in contemporary Japan?. J. Disaster Sci. Manag. 1, 24 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44367-025-00023-1