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publications
Model for Interdependent Critical Flows: Addressing Cross-Sectoral Vulnerability
Published in ESREL2026, 2024
Societal well-being depends on the continuous operation of vital functions that critically depend on access to flows of essential commodities and services across sectors, i.e., Critical Flows. Understanding these cross-sectoral flow interdependencies requires modelling approaches capable of integrating both service and transfer interdependencies across different scales of analysis. Many existing modelling approaches typically either address the micro scale, capturing asset-specific vulnerabilities of critical infrastructures or supply chains, or the macroscale, dealing with a geopolitical view on security of supply and policy dynamics. Here, we propose a complementary meso-level modelling framework that enables the systematic representation of interdependency among critical functions through a flow perspective. Modelling these flows and their interdependencies is essential to capture cascading effects across vital societal functions. The model represents critical flows based on a modular system where critical infrastructure commodities, forms, and functions enable pathways from sources (productions, imports) to sinks (end-use, exports). Service and transfer interdependencies are explicitly represented in the formulation, allowing cross-sectoral effects to be captured within a unified modelling structure. The model integrates structural elements (nodes, links, spatial) with functional ones (capacities, dependencies, flows) and can be extended with temporal dynamics to account for disruption, buffer, restoration, and policy interventions. It employs a modular and incremental modelling approach, enabling continuous refinement from static flow representations to dynamic case-specific scenario simulations. This modelling development provides a foundation to study and understands cross-sectoral functionality and interdependency, quantify potential system-wide vulnerabilities, and support the strengthening of systemic resilience against diverse disruptions and hazards across sectors. Further, the underlying framework is also useful for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers to integrate resilience management, prioritize resources, and support resilience planning in complex interdependent socio-technical systems and critical entities.
Recommended citation: Rahadianto, H., Johansson, J. (2026). Model for Interdependent Critical Flows: Addressing Cross-Sectoral Vulnerability. In: Proc. of the European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL2026). Edited by José C. Matos, Paulo B. Lourenço, Michael Beer, Daniel Oliveira, Edoardo Patelli, Hélder S. Sousa, Rui A. Silva and Monica Santamaria. Published by Research Publishing, Singapore. doi: 10.3850/ESREL2026061419_esrel26-p26152-cd https://rpsonline.com.sg/proceedings/esrel2026/
Multiscale impact assessment of massive ash fallout from a large eruption: What may happen if Sakurajima Taisho eruption occurs in contemporary Japan?
Published in Journal of Disaster Science and Management, 2025
The 1914 eruption of Sakurajima (the Taisho eruption) caused catastrophic consequences by releasing enormous volcanic ash to Japan’s atmosphere, affecting both proximal and distal regions. As volcanic ash is a complex hazard that can cause damage to critical infrastructure and disrupt socio-economic activities, impacts from such an eruption in contemporary Japan will be more severe than in 1914. Despite records of past large eruptions at Sakurajima and evidence of associated threat, there are no comprehensive studies addressing the full extent of volcanic ash hazards, particularly in distal areas. To fill the gaps in current knowledge, this study presents the multiscale impacts assessment of volcanic ash hazards to contemporary Japan, using the Taisho eruption case, encompassing the physical and socio-economic impacts under both the general weather patterns and extreme weather events. This study incorporates an ash dispersal database generated using One Eruption Scenario (OES) approach which contains tens of thousands of individual eruptive episodes under various weather regimes. We then estimate the probability distributions of ashfall accumulation and overlay them on assets maps in contemporary Japan to assess potential disruption in transportation, service interruptions, damage to infrastructure, and human casualties. This study found that under typical weather, massive ashfall from a large eruption in Sakurajima volcano can disrupt and damage multiple critical infrastructure, such as airports, roads, power networks, and buildings at a local through national level, potentially causing significant economic losses and casualties. Under extreme weather when volcanic ash dispersal widens and intensifies, we found greater overall impacts due to the escalation of initial damage and addition of secondary hazards. The compounded effects of extreme weather and volcanic eruptions demands a re-evaluation of structural resilience and emergency preparedness, particularly in vulnerable regions, as part of integrated disaster management strategies.
Recommended citation: Rahadianto, H., Tatano, H. & Iguchi, M. Multiscale impact assessment of massive ash fallout from a large eruption: What may happen if Sakurajima Taisho eruption occurs in contemporary Japan?. J. Disaster Sci. Manag. 1, 24 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44367-025-00023-1
talks
Addressing Systemic Vulnerability of Swedish Critical Flows under Hybrid Crises and Climate Change
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teaching
Teaching experience 1
Undergraduate course, University 1, Department, 2014
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Teaching experience 2
Workshop, University 1, Department, 2015
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